China’s Population Declines for Third Consecutive Year Amid Falling Birth Rates
China’s population has declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a drop to 1.408 billion by year-end, down from 1.410 billion in 2023. This trend extends a demographic downturn that threatens the country’s economic growth and social stability.
The world’s most populous nation for decades, China was overtaken by India in 2023 as its population shrinks despite government efforts to reverse the decline. Beijing has implemented subsidies and pro-fertility campaigns but continues to grapple with persistently low birth rates and an aging population.
The decline in 2024 was less severe than in 2023, which saw more than double the fall compared to 2022. However, experts remain skeptical about a long-term reversal of the trend.
China officially ended its one-child policy in 2016, transitioning to a two-child policy and later allowing up to three children in 2021. However, these reforms have had minimal impact, with many citing rising living costs and evolving societal norms as key factors discouraging larger families.
Yun Zhou, a sociologist at the University of Michigan, attributed the continued decline to economic uncertainties and entrenched gender discrimination in the labor market.
Data released Friday also revealed that the population aged 60 and above reached 310.31 million in 2024, nearing a quarter of the total population, up from nearly 297 million in 2023. Experts project this demographic will account for nearly a third of the population by 2035, further straining public health and pension systems.
Despite the overall decline, the birth rate slightly increased to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024. However, Zhao Litao, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute, warned that the rise is temporary and tied to factors like delayed childbirth during the COVID-19 pandemic and a surge in marriages during the auspicious Year of the Dragon.
“The population of childbearing-age women is projected to decline sharply in the coming decades,” Zhao noted.
In response to the aging crisis, China implemented a gradual increase in its retirement age starting January 1, 2025. The previous retirement age, among the lowest globally at 60, had remained unchanged for decades despite rising life expectancy and improved living conditions.
However, independent demographer He Yafu warned that the overall population decline would persist unless stronger pro-natal policies are adopted.
“Unless strong policies to encourage childbirth are introduced, the proportion of the elderly population will continue to rise,” He told AFP.
As the world’s second-largest economy, China faces mounting challenges, including slowing economic growth, labor shortages, and increasing pressure on its public health and pension systems, amplifying concerns over long-term economic stability.
